О влиянии финансирования исследований и разработок на повышение энергоэффективности национальных экономик

Abstract

На основе анализа энергопотребления по 44 странам мира, разделенным в соответствии с пятью признаками на три группы (кластера), установлено наличие статистически значимых связей между ускорением накопления объема потребленных национальной экономикой первичных энергоресурсов и кумулятивным финансированием исследований и разработок. Доказано, что развитие инвестирования научных исследований и разработок приводит к снижению энергетических затрат по национальным экономикам.

На основі аналізу енергоспоживання по 44 країнах світу, розділених відповідно із п'ятьма ознаками на три групи (кластери), встановлено наявність статистично значущих зв'язків між прискоренням накопичення спожитих національною економікою обсягів первинних енергоресурсів та кумулятивним фінансуванням досліджень і розробок. Доведено, що розвиток інвестування наукових досліджень і розробок веде до зниження енергетичних витрат по національних економіках.

Reduction of energy consumption at the macroeconomic level is traditionally perceived as a result of scientific and technical progress, and thus, in its turn - as a manifestation of the budget financing of R&D in the country. The article deals with the study of the significant statistical relationship between the amount of science financing at the level of national economies and the reduction of energy consumption by countries. The acceleration (deceleration) is proposed to be used as a dependent variable - the second derivative of a time function of accumulation of the volume of primary energy resources consumed by the national economy, and as the independent variable - data on the cumulative budget investments inherent in the national economy. We used data received after long-term observations of the development of 44 countries with different economic, climatic, and structural-economic characteristics to conduct research. As to make a detailed analysis of energetic and economic relations all countries in the sample have been divided into three groups by five attributes in automatic mode (using the methods of a cluster analysis) - the per capita GDP, annual budget allocations for science, output of industrial production per capita, climatic factor, primary energy resources per capita. The first cluster‟s included the richest countries in the world with the highest expenditures on R&D, in the second cluster there have been the countries with the warmest climate, and the third cluster has been for the emerging economies historically developed as industrial ones. Statistically significant relationships have been established between the acceleration in the economies of the countries - the representatives of each cluster of the cumulative consumption of primary energy resources and financing of R&D. It was proved that the development of investment in R&D results in lower energy costs for the national economies. The acceleration (not a slowdown in the rates of energy consumption as in advanced economies) in the countries with low volumes of budget financing of R&D can be logically explained by the rebound effect. The presence of "black swans" - the countries with specific energy consumption due to high expenditures on R&D is revealed.