Методика анализа данных, моделирования и прогнозирования уровня развития человеческого потенциала стран мира и регионов Украины

Abstract

Описана методика применения корреляционно-регрессионного анализа и комбинаторного алгоритма МГУА для анализа данных, моделирования и прогнозирования уровня человеческого развития стран мира и регионов Украины. Приведены примеры решения задач восстановления данных, отбора информативных аргументов, построения моделей для анализа и прогноза.

Описано методику застосування кореляційно-регресійного аналізу та комбінаторного алгоритму МГУА для аналізу даних, моделювання і прогнозування рівня людського розвитку країн світу та регіонів України. Подано приклади розв'язання задач відновлення даних, відбору інформативних аргументів, побудови моделей для аналізу і прогнозу.

Introduction. In spite of existing techniques, a problem of data analysis, modeling, and forecasting of social and economic processes is of current importance since the macroeconomic data often contain uncertainty. They also can be fuzzy and noisy. Therefore, it is often difficult to find a solution for such problems with the acceptable accuracy. Purpose. The purpose of this article is to develop a procedure to solve the problems of the human development level data analysis, modeling, and forecasting for the countries of the world and the regions of Ukraine based on the combinatorial GMDH algorithm and the correlationregression analysis. This procedure promotes improvement to the decision-making process in the field of the social and economic development policy in Ukraine both on the regional level and to compare the results achieved by our state on the way of progress in the field of the human potential development with other countries. Methods. By the development of this procedure the combinatorial GMDH algorithm and regression analysis are used to build these models. Correlation analysis was applied to analyze the level of influence of indicators on the output quantity and to choose the most informative factors. Results. A procedure for data analysis, modeling and forecasting to assess the human development level in the countries of the world and the Ukrainian regions was elaborated. This procedure can be used of recovering the data, selecting the informative arguments, building a model for the identification and forecasting, and extending the modeling space owing to the new arguments’ addition. Conclusion. The application results of this procedure are recommendations for the possible correction of some aspects of the human development. It gives a possibility to improve the decision making process in the social and economic sphere. The worked out procedure can be used by the specialists in the field of the social and economical development, international relations to analyze and forecast the main trends in the regional development and international policy.